Monday, February 26, 2007

Iran and a Nuclear Middle East

Well now we have a Iran with a missile capable of putting a payload in orbit.

What does this mean, you ask? This means that if we allow this to go on, we have a Iran with the ability to make Chicago or any other city in the world a very bad place to live.

Why don't we just go in and kick some butt? This would be a bad idea for two major reasons.
  1. Iran will not fall in the way Iraq did. Just look at the tactics used by the Iranians in the Iran/Iraq war. They gave boys and old men headbands and sent them to the front lines in human waves, knowing that most would die. But, when the survivors overran the Iraqi lines they armed themselves and attacked with the Iraqi weapons. This is important...............When engaged in a conflict the most important factor is the will to achieve victory at any cost, and we don't have the will to fight a war on those terms. The Iraqis did not fight the war on our terms, they are still fighting the war on their terms and looks like they will win.
  2. If you think that terrorism is bad now? Just wait. Iran, unlike prewar Iraq, actually is a state sponsor of terrorism. Get the picture? The middle east will go up like a powder keg if we launch military strikes against Iran. It is just too terrible to even contemplate, because Iran will not pull any punches. Even if they had nukes at this point, they will not use them. This is for the same reasons as why the Russians never launched a nuclear first strike against us. Iran and much of the Middle East would cease to exist. Not even Al-Qaeda wants that, their whole purpose is to establish a new Caliphate in the Middle East, and if Mecca is uninhabitable due to radiation fallout then they do not get it.
Well, then we need to negotiate with Iran to stop their nuclear enrichment programs. Easier said than done. The main problem as I see it right now is the Israeli nuclear program. As long as Israel has a nuclear program the international community is complicit and hypocritical while they apply a double standard in the Middle East. It is ok for Israel to have nukes, but not Iran. How can any Arab country have nuclear security with Israel in possession of nuclear weapons. As history has shown, Israel really likes the idea of preemptive strike on it's perceived security threats. So the inevitable breakdown over Iran's nuclear program may well lead to an Israeli first strike and we can only pray for a conventional attack.

Well, what the Hell do we do then? We can only achieve our foreign policy goals in the Middle East if we are seen as a rational and fair actor in the negotiations. Israel's occupation of the Palestinian State, the illegal settlements, and their nuclear program must all be on the table. The only way to solve this issue is to solve the real issue. Iran will never feel safe with a nuclear Israel as a neighbor.

1 comment:

Jonathan Comstock said...

Talking to the iranian President would be a good start!
Our Presidents have never had a conversation! Keep your friends close and your enemies closer comes to mind!